全文获取类型
收费全文 | 164篇 |
免费 | 41篇 |
国内免费 | 76篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 30篇 |
大气科学 | 135篇 |
地球物理 | 28篇 |
地质学 | 38篇 |
海洋学 | 14篇 |
综合类 | 13篇 |
自然地理 | 23篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 6篇 |
2022年 | 10篇 |
2021年 | 13篇 |
2020年 | 12篇 |
2019年 | 14篇 |
2018年 | 8篇 |
2017年 | 19篇 |
2016年 | 15篇 |
2015年 | 11篇 |
2014年 | 20篇 |
2013年 | 13篇 |
2012年 | 9篇 |
2011年 | 9篇 |
2010年 | 10篇 |
2009年 | 9篇 |
2008年 | 10篇 |
2007年 | 12篇 |
2006年 | 11篇 |
2005年 | 4篇 |
2004年 | 9篇 |
2003年 | 4篇 |
2002年 | 7篇 |
2001年 | 3篇 |
2000年 | 4篇 |
1999年 | 8篇 |
1998年 | 4篇 |
1997年 | 2篇 |
1996年 | 9篇 |
1995年 | 4篇 |
1994年 | 1篇 |
1993年 | 3篇 |
1992年 | 3篇 |
1991年 | 4篇 |
1987年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有281条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
2.
3.
4.
电话营销作为广告营销的一种主要方式,在广告营销过程中起着重要作用,根据这一营销特征,就如何面对客户在电话中拒绝提出相应的应对技巧,以赢得客户。 相似文献
5.
6.
为保持国家1∶50 000地形数据库的现势性,实现地形图制图数据库重点要素和全要素的快速更新,满足地形图快速输出与应急服务的需要,为国民经济建设与社会发展提供可靠的测绘保障。本文主要介绍利用1∶50 000动态更新数据库成果,分析工作要点及解决制图作业、检查难点。 相似文献
7.
A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions. 相似文献
8.
9.
Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used. 相似文献
10.
以人工增雨作业获取的飞机积冰实例资料为基础,利用WRF模式对51次飞机积冰过程进行数值模拟,对比分析了常用七种积冰预报算法对积冰潜势区和强度的预报效果,进而采用评分权重集成法建立了飞机积冰强度集成预报模型,并检验了其预报效果。结果表明:(1)假霜点温度经验法对2002年4月4日积冰个例的预报效果与实况一致,而其他积冰算法预报效果均与实况相差较大;(2)对51次飞机积冰预报效果进行统计检验发现,假霜点温度经验法的预报效果最好,积冰强度预报准确率为72.55%,其次是RAOB法,IC指数法和I积冰指数法次之,改进的IC指数法预报准确率最差,只有19.61%;(3)对比不同积冰算法建立的集成预报模型的预报效果发现,选用IC指数法、假霜点温度经验法、RAOB法进行集成预报时,预报准确率最高,且漏报率、偏弱率及偏强率均能控制在10%以内,比单一预报算法中的最高预报准确率提高了8%,且漏报率降低了4%,偏强率降低了8%。 相似文献